Doctoral Theses (Management & Languages)
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Item Model assessment for Bayesian spatio-temporal epidemic models for complex data sets using hybrid computational methods(Heriot-Watt University, 2019-02) Thong, David Yew Weng; Gibson, Professor Gavin J.; Streftaris, Associate Professor GeorgeThis project investigates the use of model assessment techniques for stochastic spatiotemporal models, with a focus on embedding classical style tests within the Bayesian framework and applying them to study real-world systems. Techniques will be investigated within the context of epidemic models. These models model the spread of a disease, for example, citrus canker, over a spatial region. We will focus on methods of choosing between different transmission kernels. The transmission kernel is a component in the model which determines how the disease spreads over space and time, and is important in choosing the right strategy for the disease, for example, culling of infected individual. The methods for model selection within this context are challenging to develop and implement. Building on recent work within the group which has focused on tests applied to residual processes, we will investigate how likelihood-based tests might be applied to latent processes in order to formulate methods that avoid the sensitivity to parameter priors suffered by purely Bayesian approaches to model comparison. In addition, we extend existing latent residual tests to detect the presence of anisotropic spatial kernels. The power of these tests will be calculated and their advantages and disadvantages investigated, both from a computational and a practical perspective as well from a theoretical perspective. These investigations will be carried out using computational statistical methods performed on simulated and real-world data sets, including the DEFRA data-set for the foot-and-mouth outbreak of 2001. Our investigations show that the likelihood-based methods are able to detect misspecification of spatial kernel, sometimes exceeding the power of existing latent residual tests. Our directional infection link residual test is shown to be able detect anisotropy in simulated data. Using hybrid computational programming techniques, our tests have been shown to scale to big data sets of 188,361 individuals, and detect mis-specification of kernel in an existing analysis of the data.Item Accountability and governance in Pakistan : the case of educational NGOs(Management and Languages, 2019-10) Farrukh, Anees; Kamla, Professor RaniaThe aim of this study is to critically explore the partnership/relationship between the civil society organisations, government and international development agencies to reveal how different sources of funds construct power relations that require discharge of accounts through particular accounting technologies. Based on interview narratives with local educational NGOs activists in Pakistan, and critical analysis of discourses and documents vis-à-vis education, this study explore power dynamics shaping governance and accountability relations between local and foreign-funded educational NGOs in Pakistan, where 25 million children are out of school. Using the multiple theoretical viewpoints, including postcolonial studies, literature on governmentality and theories on education, the study demonstrates the ways how the framework of dependency is created between the international development organisations and the Foreign Funded NGOs (FFNs), who are governed from a distance through formal mechanisms of accountability that are largely based on calculative accounting techniques. The study argues that FFNs become mediators of neoliberal discourse when they are embedded within the ‘accounting-based-accountability’ arrangements that are enforced by their funders at a distance. On the contrary, Locally Funded NGOs (LFNs) have increased legitimacy as they uphold their organisational values, with the ability to resist oppressive modes of neoliberal governance as they are not entirely dependent on foreign resources, with the potential to facilitate ‘accountability-based-accounting’ structures. The study also demonstrate the issue of mistrust embedded within the socio-economic, political and historical conflicts between the NGOs/actors (re)-enforcing scepticism and suspicion between agents, further hindering emancipatory potentials to development and education. This leads to serious queries about the effectiveness of aid and the ways these educational NGOs are governed and held to account. As the consequence of scepticism is oppressive education, new forms of imperialism and developmentalities, embedded within the oppressive neoliberal modes of governance.Item Explanations, economic consequences and perceptions of internet financial reporting by Chinese listed companies - an empirical study of Chinese stock exchanges(Management and Languages, 2016-02) Zhang, Bing; Marston, Professor Claire; Paisey, Professor NickThe aim of this study is to examine Internet financial reporting (IFR) in an emerging capital market. It has three main objectives: first, to examine the provision of financial information on the websites of Chinese listed companies and identify the factors determining the financial information on such websites; second, to examine the economic consequences of IFR on a company’s value in China; and, third, to investigate the perceptions of Chinese participants regarding IFR. Fifteen research questions were designed and twelve hypotheses formulated to accomplish the above aims and objectives. This study applies an empirical approach to investigating IFR practices of Chinese listed companies. The study combines quantitative and qualitative research methods, with an emphasis on quantitative research methods. To answer the research questions and test the twelve hypotheses, data collection comprised an IFR index review and semi-structured interviews. Descriptive analyses showed relative improvement in the disclosures of financial information, corporate governance information, social responsibility, timeliness of disclosure, presentation and usability on the sampled websites. The results of a univariate analysis and a multivariate analysis indicated that company size, industry type, big-4 auditor type, state share ownership, foreign share ownership, CEO duality, and the proportion of independent directors are significant explanatory variables associated with disclosures on corporate websites. Conversely, leverage, profitability, legal person ownership, and board size have no predictive value for determining Internet financial reporting practices among listed companies. Sensitivity analyses were performed and the results were consistent. This finding meets the expectations of agency theory, signalling theory, institutional theory, the cost and benefit approach, and stewardship theory. The finding from the interviews with company participants suggested that factors determining whether companies adopt IFR include: communication tools with investors and other stakeholders, provision of timely information to investors, the extent to which having a website improves a company’s image and reputation, management decisions and likelihood of winning awards. Factors influencing companies not to disclose financial information on their websites included the presence of financial information in other media. Additionally, some companies had no website because there is no legal requirement to do so and so a website is not a management priority. Participants from companies also provided some ideas for IFR improvement from China’s perspective. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to discover whether IFR and its components affect a firm’s value. Models for both 2010 and 2011 revealed that IFR total score has a significant negative impact on firm value. Additional regression tests were therefore performed to examine firm value and IFR components, IFR content, timeliness, corporate governance, social factors, presentation and usability all have a negative effect on firm value. A significant negative association between IFR information and firm value suggests proprietary costs are particularly relevant for IFR disclosure. This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical and theoretical evidence about IFR practices of China listed companies. Results from statistical analysis, together with perceptions of participants, as expressed in interviews, provided a better understanding of IFR practices. In light of the research results, regulators and policy makers are expected to benefit from a clearer understanding of the needs of the market, thereby creating a new challenge for regulators when developing future schemes regarding the financial reporting regulatory framework, in order to achieve a higher level of compliance and transparency. These empirical results provide a significant benefit to professional bodies; in particular, furthering understanding of IFR practices and their characteristics, helping to standardise IFR content, to define codes of conduct, and to dictate rules and recommendations for the future. The findings will benefit companies seeking to learn about how to exhibit best practice. The results will be interesting to academics and future researchers in the area of emerging markets, as the Chinese stock market is developing rapidly and offers a unique institutional environment. This research also provides useful insights into the relationship between agency issues, the cost and benefit approach, unique institutional frameworks and IFR.Item Corporate financing decisions : innovative versus non-innovative firms(Management and Languages, 2017-03) Machokoto, Michael; Ibrahim, Associate Professor Boulis; Mustafa, Professor CaglayanThis thesis uses a sample of 807 firms listed on the London Stock Exchange over the period 1987-2013 to investigate the differences in financing decisions, leverage adjustments and trade credit policies between innovative firms that report R&D and non-innovative firms that do not report R&D. This focus is motivated by the marked increase in intangible investments amongst firms in the UK, and the need to reexamine the overlooked interdependence of financing and investment decisions. The empirical analyses in this thesis use a combination of ordinary least squares with fixed effects (OLS FE thereon) and system Generalised Method of Moments (system GMM thereon) as the main estimation techniques. The results show that leverage is persistent, with innovative firms adopting similar financing structures as noninnovative firms despite being supposedly constrained. Further, innovative firms consistently adjust their leverage towards a target faster than non-innovative firms. This result suggests that innovative firms are more active in managing their capital structure, perhaps because they face higher costs of deviating from target relative to non-innovative firms. The results also show that innovative and non-innovative firms have different credit policies,where the former give (use) more (less) trade credit than the latter. Finally, analyses of time variation in leverage and credit adjustments, which are largely overlooked in the literature, suggest that such variations are important in understanding corporate decisions. This is especially pertinent given the economic shift from predominantly manufacturing based sectors towards technology and service based sectors. Overall, the results show that investment type has a significant effect on corporate decisions beyond the factors reported in the literature.Item Under-pricing and long-run performance of Initial Public Offerings in developing markets : the case of Thailand(School of Management and Languages, 2016-01) Komenkul, Kulabutr; Sherif, Associate Professsor Mohamed; Xu, Doctor Bing; Brzeszczynski, Professor JanuszThe IPO underpricing phenomenon has existed for a long time in stock markets around the world, although its magnitude varies from country to country. However, the evidence regarding IPO over-performance or underperformance in the long-run is mixed. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the long-run performance of IPOs in Thailand using various methods to ascertain the significance of the over- or under-performance of IPOs. The Thai stock market is a relatively new stock exchange compared to established stock markets. Therefore, there are not yet many public companies listed on the Thai market. Consequently, one of the ambitions of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is to stimulate market activity and increase the number of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in Thailand. This may mean that a close study of a number of important issues related to the Thai IPO stock market is particularly interesting. The thesis, therefore, investigates three inter-related empirical issues concerning the Thai IPOs listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) and the Market for Alternative Investment (MAI) during the period 2001 to 2012. The first empirical study re-examined the evidence from the long-run returns. The threeyear stock returns of the IPOs were investigated using Cumulative Abnormal Returns (CAR), Buy-and-Hold Abnormal Returns (BHAR), and Wealth Relatives (WR). This study further compared abnormal returns with various alternative benchmarks, such as the CAPM, the Fama and French (1993) Three-Factor (FF) models, the Size Control Portfolio (SD) model, the eight industry benchmarks, and also more robust statistical tests. The calendar-time approach based on the market model with an additional liquidity factor as well as Fama-French and Carhart models were applied for verifying long-run abnormal returns. This study provided robust evidence that Thai IPOs underperform in the long-run, irrespective of alternative benchmarks and methods. However, the results are sensitive not only to the methodology used, but also to the exact-time-period chosen and the size effect from big-sized companies going public in the sample period. If they omitted the two big firms from the IPO sample and considered the equally-weighted CAR and BHAR, the event-time returns related to CAPM, FF and SD models and the calendar-time approach, they would conclude that they cannot earn any abnormal returns irrespective of the alternative benchmarks and weighting methods used. In the same vein, after controlling for firm size, the long-term over-performance will disappear for Thai IPOs. The second empirical study examines the relationship between the intended uses of IPO proceeds disclosure and the under-pricing and long-run performance of IPOs. The results reveal that the levels of use-of-proceeds disclosures reduce firms’ cost of capital. This study also suggests that firms disclosed use-of-proceeds for investment has negative effects on IPO underpricing. The findings also indicate that the proportion of common shares owned by the Thai government provides a positive signal for IPO overperformance in the long-run. For the effect of the use-of-proceeds purposes, this study suggests that ‘Investment’ IPOs perform better in the long-run than ‘Debt Repayment’ IPOs. The final empirical study investigated the relationship between IPOs’ pricing effects and their subsequent classification as speculative investments. The findings showed a significant positive relationship between the magnitude of the IPO underpricing and the probability of an IPO firm being officially classified as speculative on the Turnover List (TOL). The results also revealed that a six-month abnormal return after going public increases the probability of speculative dealing in the IPOs. There are several implications for this study. The findings may therefore be useful for investors, security analysts, and companies and regulators in many other emerging markets beyond Thailand. Given the conflicting results of poor post-IPO stock market performance, investors may do better holding Thai IPOs for a short period with the likelihood of gaining a higher return. In addition, the results help investors to identify which characteristics are associated with more over-performance or underperformance, which will be informative to them when formulating their investment strategies. For the IPO firms, endogenous information disclosure of intended use-of-proceeds could be used as another signaling factor, but it creates a trade-off between the benefit of reducing information asymmetry and the costs associated with revealing information and possible litigation. Additionally, the findings from the third empirical work in this thesis are particularly useful for SET and SEC, enabling the Thai authorities to monitor IPOs that have a high probability of becoming speculative stocks in the future and so be able to warn investors about the risks associated with trading in them. Regulators may also use the probability of Turnover List risk as one of the benchmarks to measure the success of the rules they impose on companies planning to go public.Item An assessment of the sustainability of E-fulfilment models for the delivery of fast moving consumer goods to the home(Heriot-Watt University, 2013-10) van Loon, Patricia Petronella Johanna Cornelia; McKinnon, Professor Alan; Rutherford, Doctor ChristineOnline retail sales are growing rapidly and have captured a significant proportion of the retail market in many countries. Although companies are under mounting pressure to reduce their environmental impact, the environmental effect of the different online distribution strategies remains unclear. Most previous studies of this subject have only included partial effects and consequences. To enable a more holistic understanding, this study proposes a more inclusive framework of environmental assessment based on life cycle analysis. This was applied to fast moving consumer goods (FMCG). Previous studies have shown that the last mile delivery contributes significantly to the environmental impact of online retailing, mainly because of the nature of the home delivery operations, including narrow time windows and short order lead times. If consumers were to buy products online on a subscription basis and give the supplier more control over the replenishment process there might be less need for fast deliveries, creating opportunities to improve the efficiency of home deliveries and reduce their environmental impact. The study classified different forms of subscription arrangement, assessed their relative attractiveness to consumers and examined their likely impact on the supply chain. Consumer views on subscriptions were surveyed by means of focus group discussions and interviews. To assess the likely supply chain impacts of subscriptions, the literature on vendor-managed inventory was consulted. A Life-Cycle Assessment (LCA) model was built to quantify and compare the environmental impact of various e-fulfilment models for FMCG products in the United Kingdom. This study reveals that the method of execution have a large influence on the environmental impact. In store-based retailing, the energy consumption within the supermarket is a significant contributor to the total greenhouse gas emissions. On the other hand, some forms of home delivery, involving for example the use of parcel networks with no pre-agreed time-slots and relatively high rates of delivery failure and customer collection, are also carbon-intensive. This contribution of consumer trips to the total footprint is much smaller in case of van-based deliveries where pre-agreed time-windows are used. Regardless of the business model, the total carbon footprint per item depends heavily on the number of items per delivery. Consequently, companies or consumers looking to decrease the environmental impact of online shopping should maximise the number of items per delivery. The study concludes with an assessment of the strengths, weaknesses and possible environmental improvements of each of the efulfilment methods, taking account of the possible role of subscriptions.Item Embodied cognition and executive functioning : the effect of whole body interaction on children's planning and inhibition(Heriot-Watt University, 2017-04) McKenna, Peter Edward; Rajendran, Doctor Thusha; Lemon, Professor OliverModern user interfaces (UI) are becoming more ‘embodied’ as they facilitate bodily processes. Games consoles now often include body tracking hardware. Tenants of the theories of embodied cognition and executive function (EF) have stipulated that cognition is to some extent tied to the motor system, and so, that cognitive processing benefits from physical interaction. To date however, the research in this domain has focussed on adult populations. Ultimately, children are going to experience this UI revolution throughout the lifespan. So, in the following thesis I examined whether whole body interaction supported by a gaming floor mat improved children’s performance on a set of EF tasks. A set of new, gamified EF tasks were developed and completed using two interfaces (a floor mat and a keyboard) at separate sessions. The results revealed children were equally competent at each EF task using either device. Another notable finding was the effect of gamification on performance. The findings are discussed in the context of developmental psychology, experiment composition, and children’s interactions with technology.Item Tax effects on investments(Heriot-Watt University, 2017-09) Liu, Shijie; Adams, Professor Andrew; Ibrahim, Doctor BoulisThis doctoral thesis investigates empirically and theoretically the effect of tax on the composition of the optimal allocation of wealth to risky assets from various points of view. The first empirical chapter considers the effect of tax on a U.K. personal investor targeting domestic financial products. This research helps investors estimate the impact of a future tax change and maximize their portfolio return using a newly proposed optimization model and solution method. Following Bonami and Lejeune (2009), personal portfolios are constrained to meet or exceed a prescribed return threshold with a high confidence level and satisfy buy-in threshold and diversification constraints. Their model is improved by incorporating complex tax trading rules with withdrawal features that enhance those considered by Osorio et al. (2004, 2008). A solution based on Greedy methods is developed to deal with the proposed large-scale portfolio optimization problem. The empirical results report substantial non-linear tax effects on riskier assets and enhanced effects of withdrawal tax only when tax rates are high. The developed framework better enables investors to react to tax changes, and tax policy makers to quantify the influence of tax changes on private investment preferences. The second empirical chapter investigates the effect of an international transaction tax, the so-called ‘Tobin tax’, from the point of view of U.K., U.S., and E.U. personal investors targeting international financial products. This empirical research helps the policy maker to estimate the impact of Tobin tax on international capital flows and, therefore, assess the optimal way to introduce the new tax. An optimization model is proposed to maximize the expected net Sharpe ratio and find the optimal risky portfolio internationally. Complex trading and tax rules are considered. To examine the precise effects of different investment and transaction tax rules, a comparison of four tax settings is presented: source only, residence only, mixed with credit and mixed with double taxation. The experimental results show that a source only tax union has more capital transits in international markets than a residence only tax union, and its optimal market portfolio is more sensitive to regional tax policy. In a mixed tax system, double taxation between residence- and source-taxed markets significantly reduces the attraction of the latter while its attraction is maintained with the credit method. Tobin tax can reduce the volatility of the market but the effect varies with tax rate, certain market specifications (e.g., expected returns and correlations with overseas markets) and investment tax rules. It does not depend on which side of the capital flow (inflow or outflow) is subject to Tobin tax. Finally, an agreement among countries to produce a consistent Tobin tax rate globally can significantly reduce the negative effect of Tobin tax on capital flows while retaining its positive effect on market stability in comparison to heterogeneous Tobin tax rates. Finally, the third analytical chapter investigates theoretically the effect of tax from the point of view of an arbitrageur. This theoretical research addresses the condition of the existence of arbitrage opportunities on an after-tax basis, helping the policy maker improve the fairness and efficiency of markets by addressing effective tax policy. To track tax arbitrage, continuous time optimization models are developed with heterogeneous taxation between investors programmed with continuous rather than static income and capital gains (or losses). It is proved analytically that arbitrage opportunities exist for both perfectly correlated and non-perfectly correlated assets. For perfectly correlated assets, the analysis shows that tax arbitrage may exist, with the investor’s top tax rate and some static asset parameters determining the existence of arbitrage opportunities. It is also proved that many of the equilibria obtained under income tax only are not optimal if investors are also subject to capital gains tax. For non-perfectly correlated assets, however, it is the market prices of cap and floor options on asset returns that decide the existence of tax arbitrage. In the government fixed income bond market, tax arbitrage between investors is difficult to eliminate unless investors are all subject to the same tax rates. But the return from this arbitrage can be limited if the government applies the same top tax rate to all investors.Item A dynamic approach to service provider boundaries : the case of the logistics industry(Heriot-Watt University, 2017-05) Konig, Christian; Caldwell, Doctor Nigel; Rutherford, Doctor ChristineThe role of a systems integrator has emerged associated with large-scale, often project-based industries. This research addresses the development of systems integration in service provision by investigating service provision boundaries. The main purpose of the study is to contribute to the ongoing debate about systems integration through an investigation that goes beyond a binary perspective of insourcing and outsourcing. Grounded in the theoretical assumptions from the resource-based view (RBV), transaction cost economics (TCE) and agency theory (AT), the thesis aims to explain the development of systems integration capabilities in service provision, using the provision of logistics services as a context. Theoretically, this thesis demonstrates how conventional economic and sociological theories (and in particular a multi-theoretical perspective) contribute to understanding service boundary decisions for provider firms, focusing on ex-ante and ex-post contractual and relational governance mechanisms. Methodologically, the study adopts an abductive research approach using a multiple case study design and interviews as a means of qualitative data collection. The case study both tests established theories and develops new propositions in the fields of operations and supply chain management. This approach of using qualitative data to deductively test and support theoretical constructs is an emergent methodology in operations management research. The managerial implications of this study contribute to better understanding the nature and role of systems integrators and illustrate how this phenomenon can be applied to service providers in a logistics context. The findings and the proposed service provision continuum can therefore enable provider firms to enhance their management of their service offerings and outsourcing arrangements. The primary contribution of this thesis is an empirically derived and contextualised framework that offers firstly a new approach to a service provision continuum and secondly proposes four dynamic archetypes of service provision.Item Understanding the development of the organisational capabilities in micro manufacturing enterprises(Heriot-Watt University, 2016-10) Inan, Guven Gurkan; Bititci, Professor Umit S.Competitiveness has been increasing dramatically in last few decades. Practitioners and researchers investigated new ways to gain competitive advantage in competitive markets. Organisational capability theories are developed to understand role of internal resources of organisations in competition and organisational capabilities are seen the source of competitive advantage in management literature. Great amount of research has been conducted in the field of organisational capabilities focusing mainly on Large enterprises and some on SMEs. SMEs are seen as the backbone of the economies and the importance of SMEs are well documented in literature. Micro enterprises are included the definition of SMEs but researchers ignored the Micro enterprises due to the difficulties of data collection and there is no research in organisational capabilities field in the context of micro enterprises. In this research, it was aimed to understand development of organisational capabilities in micro enterprises. Organisational capability theories are reviewed and a theoretical framework was developed with a system perspective. A conceptual framework was developed for Micro enterprises to understand relevance of and development process of organisational capabilities. An action research methodology is used to understand the development of organisational capabilities in Micro enterprises. Finally, relevant and irrelevant organisational capabilities to Micro enterprises were identified. Additionally, development processes of organisational capabilities in Micro enterprises were identified.