Long-term scenario analysis for the post-mobile era in Germany

Abstract

This dissertation, “Long-term Scenario Analysis for the Post-Mobile Era in Germany”, explores the future of the smartphone by 2040 and examines whether it will remain dominant or be replaced. The thesis addresses not only technological shifts but also social, ecological, economic and political dynamics shaping the post-mobile era. To capture this complexity, the research applies a triangulated design across three Phases: Scanning & Set-up, Foresight, and Transfer. Phase S included a bibliometric analysis to identify discourse patterns, followed by a small-scale survey and expert interviews. In Phase F, a Delphi ZTPI survey – combining a real-time Delphi with a condensed version of the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI) – was used to analyse how time orientation influences expert assessments. Eight scenarios were developed in Phase T based on inputs from Phases S and F. Scenario dimensions were derived empirically, enhancing transparency and reproducibility. The scenarios depict diverse trajectories, from conventional smartphones to AI-powered wearables, modular sustainable devices, sensory-enhanced interfaces, and implanted technologies. The dissertation advances Strategic Foresight by integrating psychological profiling into the process – enabling more differentiated interpretations of expert judgement. The results offer a transferable framework for cross-industry use, while the scenarios provide targeted insights for decision-makers in ICT and policy