Advancing techno-economic assessment for emission reduction technologies in the cement industry

Abstract

The cement industry, characterised by low profit margins, accounts for approximately 7% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and has the highest carbon intensity per unit of revenue among all industries. To achieve full decarbonisation of this sector, it is essential to develop economically viable strategies that incentivise CO2 emission reductions. To guide policymakers and decision-makers from industry or academia in search of decarbonisation strategies, ex-ante system analysis tools including techno-economic assessments (TEA) are essential. This thesis advances techno-economic assessments of emission reduction technologies in the cement industry, both by conducting crucial assessments that have been lacking in this field (e.g., investigating potential business cases for CO2 mineralisation technologies) and by providing guidance for modellers on good and maybe bad practices in TEAs of emerging technologies, aiming to provide actionable insights for policymakers, industry decision-makers, and researchers. The research addresses three key questions, each explored in a peer-reviewed article. First, it evaluates the role of CO2 mineralisation in creating economically viable pathways to net-zero emissions. The results indicate that CO2 mineralisation using virgin minerals could reduce emissions by 8-33% at optimal plant sizes, with potential for profitability when supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs) are produced. This suggests CO2 mineralisation could be a transitional technology in the decarbonisation of cement production. Second, it demonstrates the critical role of uncertainty analyses in TEAs, advocating for the use of global sensitivity analysis methods to enhance transparency and reliability in decision-making. Third, it assesses least-cost decarbonisation strategies across different European regions using geospatial modelling, considering plant locations and potential synergies between industrial actors. The results highlight significant regional cost variations and underscore the importance of coordinated efforts among industry stakeholders to minimise decarbonisation costs. Overall, this thesis provides actionable insights into economically viable emission reduction strategies in the cement industry while offering methodological advancements for TEAs . By integrating uncertainty analyses and geospatial considerations, it contributes to the development of robust, evidence-based decarbonisation pathways.