Using scenario planning to build strategic options to boost the performance of League of Ireland football

Abstract

This thesis considers how a strategy can be developed by applying scenario planning methodologies. The aim is to use a qualitative approach to expand on existing theory relating to scenario planning and to consider how it feeds into the strategy process. This research was conducted in relation to League of Ireland football, which has historically underperformed. Existing academic research on scenario planning, futures studies and strategy was reviewed to gain an understanding of existing scenario planning methodologies that are widely applied in practice, leading to a conceptual framework that develops the Strategy Identification Framework (SIF). The SIF was applied to LOI football in a three step process. First, a range of secondary data was analysed to identify topics that were previously highlighted as areas to improve. Second, these topics were used as a basis for semi-structured interviews with stakeholders within the industry, or tangentially linked. Using thematic analysis, a number of improvement drivers were identified and used to create a matrix of potential scenarios. These scenarios were reduced in number to three based on a review for possibility and plausibility, and then developed in detail. Finally, the three scenarios were presented to an expert panel and a future strategy for the LOI was identified. This practical application led to a revised SIF that can be used in other domains. The key contribution of the research is the development and application of the SIF, which reflected the learnings gained from the practical application to the LOI. This study has closed the gap between theory and practice in scenario planning, making it more accessible for organisations to use to create more robust strategies for the future, whilst engaging all relevant stakeholders at various stages in the process. The application of the SIF to the LOI highlighted the issues that remain within football in Ireland. The recommendation of Stadia 2031 using the financial recommendations contained in the present study, highlighted how key stakeholders are reticent to take ownership and believe that the gap should be closed by the Irish government. This is not a likely outcome. Unless significant changes are made within the structure of the game in Ireland, this study is consigned to being another lost opportunity.