What will project management look like in 2035? : a study based on the requirements of a medium-sized technology company in the Germany

Abstract

This doctoral thesis explores how project management in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) may develop by the year 2035, in response to increasing technological disruption, organisational decentralisation, and systemic complexity. The research adopts a constructivist paradigm and is theoretically grounded in Complexity Theory, which frames project environments as dynamic, emergent, and context-dependent systems. The study does not aim to predict a single future, but to investigate how expert practitioners construct multiple plausible futures through subjective interpretation. A mixed-methods research design was employed, combining a Delphi study with scenario planning. Expert participants contributed across three Delphi rounds to evaluate emerging trends and co-construct scenario narratives. This methodology enabled a synthesis of expert judgment and strategic foresight, supporting the formulation of practice-oriented insights. The principal findings suggest that the future of project management in SMEs will be characterised by human–AI collaboration, data-informed decision-making, distributed leadership, and continuous skills development. While sustainability received limited emphasis from experts, themes such as stakeholder alignment and intergenerational collaboration emerged as critical. These insights were reflected in a series of scenarios titled Stories from the Future, designed to support strategic reflection in SMEs. The thesis contributes to academic knowledge by demonstrating how Complexity Theory can inform foresight methodology and interpretive research design. Practically, it offers SME leaders structured approaches to anticipate change, build adaptive capabilities, and engage with uncertainty through reflective, scenario-based thinking, enhancing organisational resilience in complex environments.