The future of plug-in hybrid passenger cars in Europe
Abstract
This research study establishes the most likely scenarios for which plug-in hybrid
passenger vehicles will be used as company cars within the European Union by 2035.
Due to increasing oil costs and environmental unpopularity of the normal diesel or petrol
engine car, it is expected that the electric car will eventually take over. However, electric
cars still have major challenges to overcome with limited mileage range between charging
intervals and sparsely located charge points from which to recharge the car battery. For
this reason, the plug-in hybrids, which have both electric and petrol/diesel power options,
have the potential to begin replacing the normal combustion engine car while providing
some of the cost and environmental benefits of the electric car not yet sufficiently
developed.
Using the Delphi method and the expert knowledge of stakeholders in the automotive and
company car fleet sectors; this study has obtained their privileged viewpoints on various
future scenarios for plug-in hybrids. These viewpoints, following some statistical
analysis, were shared anonymously among an expert panel to facilitate further discussion.
The results were then reviewed and used to create an interview guide in order to carry out
semi-structured interviews with fifteen ‘subject matter experts’. Interview transcripts
were subject to thematic analysis from which themes were derived and final scenarios
concluded the future of plug-in hybrid cars in the European company car fleet. Results
indicated a mixed model of passenger cars power chains by 2035, with plug-in hybrids in
a declining market. Fully electric cars dominate, with a minority, but growing share of
the market, going to hydrogen vehicles. Cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells will
eventually disrupt the entire European car market in the 2040s, as hydrogen gas becomes
more efficiently produced.
Understanding the potential for plug-in hybrid technology as the next market innovation
disrupter in the car industry and developing a methodology from which to research this,
makes an important theoretical contribution to research on emerging car technologies. It
also fulfils the current knowledge gap that exists regarding diffusion of this technology
platform in the automotive and financial leasing markets. It provides valuable direction
to passenger car fleet providers and car manufacturers alike, as they struggle with new
technology innovations in the automotive sector and with investment strategies required
to make the proposed transition to electric vehicles.