The determinants of decentralised photovoltaic (PV) adoption in urban Nigeria and a verified model for rapid diffusion

Abstract

Microgeneration technologies like residential solar photovoltaic (PV) systems have been shown to have immense potential for energy security and climate change mitigation. As a way of helping to resolve the decades-long power challenge in Nigeria, this study investigated the barriers to, and motives for, domestic PV adoption in Nigeria. It also assessed whether household PV can lead to increased energy use efficiency and examined the role of Government incentives towards large-scale uptake and diffusion. Adoption and innovation diffusion theories, willingness-to-pay (WTP), coproduction and self-help concepts were employed. Results were analysed using mainly Lagos State household data, collected through questionnaire surveys and interviews. Findings from correlation and logistic regression revealed the major barriers as high capital costs, lack of finance and low awareness. Field survey analysis established the key motives for uptake as power outages, cost-savings, including generator use fuel fraud and access to finance. It also showed that post-PV, adopting households engaged in more energy efficient practices. From this data the PV efficiency cycle was developed to demonstrate how energy conservation occurred. Empirical evidence from the surveys, interviews and LCOE calculations were used to design a verified model for rapid PV diffusion. This decision-making tool can be used by the Government, policymakers, PV designers, SMEs and households for choosing an appropriately-sized module. The results point to the need for regulatory and political intervention. Effective PV awareness creation campaigns and promotional strategies would also be necessary in the changing face of electricity supply in Nigeria.