Controlling realism and uncertainty in reservoir models using intelligent sedimentological prior information
Rojas, Temistocles Simon
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Forecasting reservoir production has a large associated uncertainty, since this is the final part of a very complex process, this process is based on sparse and indirect data measurements. One the methodologies used in the oil industry to predict reservoir production is based on the Baye’s theorem. Baye’s theorem applied to reservoir forecasting, samples parameters from a prior understanding of the uncertainty to generate reservoir models and updates this prior information by comparing reservoir production data with model production response. In automatic history matching it is challenging to generate reservoir models that preserve geological realism (obtain reservoir models with geological features that have been seen in nature). One way to control the geological realism in reservoir models is by controlling the realism of the geological prior information. The aim of this thesis is to encapsulate sedimentological information in order to build prior information that can control the geological realism of the history-matched models. This “intelligent” prior information is introduced into the automatic history-matching framework rejecting geologically unrealistic reservoir models. Machine Learning Techniques (MLT) were used to build realistic sedimentological prior information models. Another goal of this thesis was to include geological parameters into the automatic history-match framework that have an impact on reservoir model performance: vertical variation of facies proportions, connectivity of geobodies, and the use of multiple training images as a source of realistic sedimentological prior information. The main outcome of this thesis is that the use of “intelligent” sedimentological prior information guarantees the realism of reservoir models and reduces computing time and uncertainty in reservoir production prediction.